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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-50-C.Wooten.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.66 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model