Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 22 – Atlanta Falcons 15

(2:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to ATL 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 34 for 9 yards (57-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.99 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model