Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Carolina Panthers 22

(1:54) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota sacked at ATL 19 for -7 yards (98-M.Haynes).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.59 EP
71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -2.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP