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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.04 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model