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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to DAL 10, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-89-P.Hendershot, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model