4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DAL
52.9%
GB
47.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL on 7 more days rest than GB
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.026 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
GB 22
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DAL

Anthony Barr LB Out Hamstring
Ezekiel Elliott RB Questionable Knee

GB

De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Knee
Romeo Doubs WR Out Ankle
Eric Stokes CB Out Ankle
Shemar Jean-Charles CB Out Ankle
Krys Barnes LB Doubtful Concussion
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
Amari Rodgers WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 28
–
GB 31

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:57 TD DAL (9:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 05:02 TD GB (5:02) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – GB 6
  • Q2 01:48 TD GB (1:48) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – GB 13
  • Q2 00:14 TD DAL (:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – GB 14
  • Q3 07:19 TD DAL (7:19) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 20 – GB 14
  • Q3 02:54 TD DAL (2:54) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-C.Lamb for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – GB 14
  • Q4 13:31 TD GB (13:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 28 – GB 20
  • Q4 02:33 TD GB (2:33) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 28 – GB 27
  • Q5 03:09 FG GB (3:09) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DAL 28 – GB 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:22) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to GB 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 64%

    (9:33) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 24%

    (8:41) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 17 for 2 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 33%

    (3:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 6, Center-56-J.Coco. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 17 for 11 yards (6-D.Leavitt).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 75%

    (13:37) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott right guard to GB 30 for 1 yard (94-D.Lowry; 58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:58) 4-D.Prescott right guard to DAL 42 for 1 yard (26-D.Savage).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (10:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to DAL 10, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-89-P.Hendershot, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:42) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to GB 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 44 for 11 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 57-L.Gifford). FUMBLES (29-C.Goodwin), RECOVERED by DAL-84-S.McKeon at GB 45.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to DAL 28, Center-56-J.Coco. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 38 for 10 yards (6-D.Leavitt). PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 56%

    (13:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:09) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to GB 5, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-K.Nixon to GB 11 for 6 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:49) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to GB 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-K.Nixon to GB 33 for 13 yards (45-M.Overton).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DAL 19, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.