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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 2-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.12 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model