Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Green Bay Packers 28

(1:49) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to GB 20, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-K.Nixon to GB 33 for 13 yards (45-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model