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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP