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DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DEN
40.1%
TEN
59.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than TEN
  • DEN defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DEN

Andrew Beck TE Out Hamstring
Baron Browning LB Out Hip
K.J. Hamler WR Out Hamstring
Nik Bonitto LB Questionable Illness
Kendall Hinton WR Questionable Illness
Darius Phillips CB Questionable Illness
Cameron Fleming T Questionable Quadricep
Justin Simmons S Questionable Knee

TEN

Zach Cunningham LB Out Elbow
Bud Dupree LB Out Hip
Amani Hooker S Out Shoulder
Jeffery Simmons DT Out Ankle
Josh Thompson CB Out Knee
Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Hamstring
Kevin Strong DE Questionable Ankle
Ryan Tannehill QB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10
–
TEN 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:30 TD DEN (8:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 15-J.Virgil for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 02:27 FG DEN (2:27) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 10 – TEN 0
  • Q2 00:16 TD TEN (:16) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – TEN 6
  • Q3 05:25 TD TEN (5:25) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – TEN 13
  • Q4 03:02 FG TEN (3:02) 14-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. DEN 10 – TEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to DEN 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-30-T.Avery.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:53) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to TEN 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 25 for 17 yards (34-E.Bassey).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DEN 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-M.Washington to DEN 21 for 8 yards (53-D.Cole).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to TEN 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 42%

    (5:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-C.Board.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:48) 17-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to TEN 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 42 for 16 yards (48-M.Fraboni, 6-P.Locke). FUMBLES (6-P.Locke), and recovers at TEN 42.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 27%

    (:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:39) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to TEN 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 20 for 6 yards (49-A.Singleton, 48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:31) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (2:27) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to TEN 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:34) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%

    (7:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 28 yards to TEN 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:30) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DEN 42 for 2 yards (93-T.Tart).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 41 yards to TEN 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-54-J.Martin.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (15:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-M.Washington to DEN 31 for 4 yards (40-D.Hilliard, 25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on DEN-16-T.Cleveland, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 19 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:29) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 42 for 12 yards (53-J.Cooper).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:58) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (3:02) 14-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end pushed ob at DEN 39 for 9 yards (47-A.Adams).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.68 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Mitchell (28-J.Kalu) [94-M.Edwards] at TEN 0. 39-T.Mitchell to TEN 1 for 1 yard.