4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to DEN 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-30-T.Avery.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model