Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 7 – Denver Broncos 10

(11:34) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.21 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model