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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 48

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 28 yards to TEN 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model