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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 60

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DEN 42 for 2 yards (93-T.Tart).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model