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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 61

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to TEN 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 25 for 17 yards (34-E.Bassey).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model