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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 81

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 17-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-C.Board to TEN 42 for 12 yards (53-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.93 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model