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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 58

Denver Broncos 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model