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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 14-R.Bullock 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model