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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to TEN 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model