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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to DEN 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model