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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 51

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to CHI 21, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-83-S.Berryhill.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.31 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model