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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DET
52.4%
CHI
47.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.158 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.181 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
CHI 21
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

Josh Reynolds WR Out Back
Matt Nelson T Doubtful Calf
Kerby Joseph S Questionable Concussion
Chase Lucas CB Questionable Ankle
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Ankle
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Questionable Elbow

CHI

Kindle Vildor CB Out Ankle
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Doubtful Knee
Teven Jenkins T Questionable Hip
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 31
–
CHI 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 FG CHI (10:42) 2-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 0 – CHI 3
  • Q1 03:24 FG DET (3:24) 17-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 07:21 TD DET (7:21) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – CHI 3
  • Q2 00:21 TD CHI (:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – CHI 9
  • Q3 07:40 TD CHI (7:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – CHI 16
  • Q3 02:53 TD CHI (2:53) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – CHI 23
  • Q4 11:42 TD DET (11:42) 32-D.Swift left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CHI 24
  • Q4 10:38 TD DET (10:38) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Okudah [96-I.Buggs] at CHI 20. 1-J.Okudah for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – CHI 24
  • Q4 09:23 TD CHI (9:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields right tackle for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – CHI 30
  • Q4 02:24 TD DET (2:24) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – CHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (10:42) 2-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (3:24) 17-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 38%

    (14:52) 16-T.Gill punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (7:21) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-B.Wright for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:06) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to CHI 9, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 24 for 15 yards (39-J.Jacobs, 49-C.Board).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:20) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to CHI 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 29 for 11 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 22%

    (:03) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to CHI 21, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-83-S.Berryhill.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:41) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to DET 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-48-P.Scales, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 35.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (7:47) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 40 for 18 yards (83-S.Berryhill).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:30) 16-T.Gill punts 46 yards to DET 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).