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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 24 – Chicago Bears 30

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-47-S.Daly. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 40 for 18 yards (83-S.Berryhill).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP