Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 68

Chicago Bears 30 – Detroit Lions 31

(1:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 22 for -10 yards (99-J.Okwara).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

What Happened

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.05 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -2.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP