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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 7

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 17-M.Badgley 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP