4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 55

Houston Texans 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-2-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.34 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP