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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU
33.2%
NYG
66.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYG on 4 more days rest than HOU
  • QB edge to NYG: Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.049 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.091 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

HOU

Neville Hewitt LB Out Hamstring
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Groin
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Chest
Nico Collins WR Questionable Groin
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Wrist

NYG

Daniel Bellinger TE Out Eye
Evan Neal T Out Knee
Cordale Flott CB Questionable Calf
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Knee
Oshane Ximines LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 16
–
NYG 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:57 TD NYG (7:57) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 83-L.Cager for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 11:32 FG HOU (11:32) 7-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – NYG 7
  • Q3 12:46 TD NYG (12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-M.Addison]. HOU 3 – NYG 13
  • Q3 08:12 TD HOU (8:12) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – NYG 14
  • Q3 02:25 TD NYG (2:25) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – NYG 20
  • Q4 02:26 FG HOU (2:26) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 13 – NYG 21
  • Q4 02:00 FG NYG (2:00) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. HOU 13 – NYG 24
  • Q4 00:11 FG HOU (:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 16 – NYG 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-A.Jackson.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (5:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to HOU 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for -1 yards (47-C.Brown, 20-J.Love).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NYG 30, Center-46-J.Weeks. 22-A.Jackson to NYG 30 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%

    (15:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (11:32) 7-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-2-T.Thomas.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:11) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to HOU 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 25-D.King to HOU 33 for 5 yards (44-N.McCloud).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-2-T.Thomas.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (12:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to HOU 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 25-D.King to HOU 48 for 13 yards (52-C.Coughlin).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 13 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to HOU 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (2:26) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 72%

    (2:00) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.