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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 75

New York Giants 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to HOU 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 25-D.King to HOU 33 for 5 yards (44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.87 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP