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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 58

Houston Texans 3 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-2-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.98 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -2.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model