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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 80

New York Giants 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to HOU 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 25-D.King to HOU 48 for 13 yards (52-C.Coughlin).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.13 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP