Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 55

New York Giants 21 – Houston Texans 10

(4:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to HOU 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.69 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model