4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 69

Houston Texans 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYG 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model