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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 40

New York Giants 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP