4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model