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Indianapolis Colts

HC Jeff Saturday
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2022-11-13 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

IND
30.3%
LV
69.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Matt Ryan (IND): -0.049 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Matt Ryan in place of Sam Ehlinger)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
LV 26
Projected margin: LV by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

IND

Deon Jackson RB Out Knee
Shaquille Leonard LB Out Back
Jelani Woods TE Out Shoulder
Kwity Paye DE Questionable Ankle
Mo Alie-Cox TE Questionable Ankle

LV

Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 25
–
LV 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:21 TD IND (3:21) 2-M.Ryan up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 12:43 FG IND (12:43) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 10 – LV 0
  • Q2 01:03 TD LV (1:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – LV 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. IND 13 – LV 7
  • Q3 01:55 TD LV (1:55) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – LV 13
  • Q3 01:12 TD IND (1:12) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – LV 14
  • Q4 11:47 TD LV (11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – LV 20
  • Q4 05:14 TD IND (5:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 1-P.Campbell for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 25 – LV 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to IND 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 18 for 3 yards (36-C.Bolton).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:25) 6-M.Haack punts 50 yards to LV 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-K.Cole to LV 36 for 9 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:36) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to IND 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 15-K.Coutee to IND 20 for 10 yards (41-M.Farley; 22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%

    (12:43) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 50%

    (8:05) 28-J.Jacobs left end to IND 47 for -3 yards (23-K.Moore).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%

    (2:04) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs right tackle to IND 35 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 80%

    (9:06) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:09) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to IND 5, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-A.Abdullah.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:39) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to IND 48, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:54) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LV 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-K.Cole to LV 15 for 8 yards (20-N.Cross). PENALTY on IND-57-J.Domann, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at LV 15.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:13) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to IND 18, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-41-M.Farley.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).