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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to IND 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 15-K.Coutee pushed ob at IND 18 for 3 yards (36-C.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model