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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 37

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs right tackle to IND 35 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model