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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 6-M.Haack punts 50 yards to LV 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-K.Cole to LV 36 for 9 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model