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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to IND 5, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.65 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model