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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 92

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 6-M.Haack punts 40 yards to IND 48, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 92, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 50, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model