Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LV 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-K.Cole to LV 15 for 8 yards (20-N.Cross). PENALTY on IND-57-J.Domann, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at LV 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model