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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 16

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Indianapolis Colts 25

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (5-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP