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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model