MIN @ BUF — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin O'Connell

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HC Sean McDermott

Sunday 2022-11-13 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

MIN

29.0%

BUF

71.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BUF offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.211 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) -0.016 EPA/dropback
BUF defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
MIN offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 19

–

BUF 26

Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Cameron Dantzler CB Out Ankle

Dalvin Tomlinson DT Out Calf

BUF

Jordan Poyer S Out Elbow

Gregory Rousseau DE Out Ankle

Kaiir Elam CB Doubtful Ankle

Josh Allen QB Questionable right Elbow

Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 33

–

BUF 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:19 TD MIN (10:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – BUF 0
Q1 08:14 TD BUF (8:14) (Shotgun) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – BUF 6
Q1 01:08 TD BUF (1:08) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – BUF 13
Q2 12:57 FG BUF (12:57) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIN 7 – BUF 17
Q2 07:15 FG MIN (7:15) 1-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 10 – BUF 17
Q2 00:33 TD BUF (:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. MIN 10 – BUF 23
Q3 01:56 FG BUF (1:56) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIN 10 – BUF 27
Q3 01:46 TD MIN (1:46) 4-D.Cook left tackle for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – BUF 27
Q4 04:38 TD MIN (4:38) 30-C.Ham left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 23 – BUF 27
Q4 00:49 TD MIN (:49) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 1, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at BUF 0. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. MIN 29 – BUF 27
Q4 00:05 FG BUF (:05) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. MIN 30 – BUF 30
Q5 03:45 FG MIN (3:45) 1-G.Joseph 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. MIN 33 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(13:18) 8-S.Martin punts 58 yards to MIN 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 26 for 10 yards (15-J.Kumerow).
Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP

p(convert) 71%

(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 44 yards to BUF 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines to BUF 30 for 8 yards (42-A.DePaola, 25-T.Jackson).
Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

(12:57) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

(7:15) 1-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 28

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

(1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Osborn (47-C.Benford).
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(:09) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines ran ob at BUF 31 for 4 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q3 BUF 4th & 14 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(10:28) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 23 for 2 yards (15-J.Kumerow).
Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines to BUF 22 for 13 yards (30-C.Ham, 91-P.Jones). PENALTY on MIN-33-B.Asamoah, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 22.
Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

(1:56) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 7

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -5. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 34 for 39 yards (17-J.Allen).
Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70%

(9:02) 17-K.Osborn right end to MIN 45 for 2 yards (39-C.Lewis).
Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 51

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 24%

(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson to BUF 39 for 12 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 77 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(3:34) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.
Q4 MIN 4th & 18 at the 73 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP

p(convert) 27%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to BUF 41 for 32 yards (39-C.Lewis).
Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

(:50) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to BUF 1 for no gain (90-S.Lawson). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.