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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 1-G.Joseph 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 9, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model