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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Osborn (47-C.Benford).

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.85 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model