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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:09) 14-R.Wright punts 46 yards to BUF 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 20-N.Hines ran ob at BUF 31 for 4 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.18 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model