Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(10:28) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to MIN 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor pushed ob at MIN 23 for 2 yards (15-J.Kumerow).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.94 EP
68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model