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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 2-T.Bass 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model