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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 27 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -5. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 34 for 39 yards (17-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 7, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model